In the history of American race relations, discrete decades of upheaval—such as the 1870s, 1910s, or 1960s—have marked the transition from one national racial bargain to another. Race relations during the long stretches of relative tranquility that followed each disruption, however, were not necessarily better, and could often be worse than what had come before. Paramilitary terrorism against blacks was less common in the decade after 1877 than in the decade before, but only because Reconstruction had been ended and the Southern system of white supremacy firmly established. Interracial violent crime is lower today than in the 1960s, but only because generations of families have gone to great lengths to insulate themselves from crime and dysfunction. The problems of the 1960s faded, but they weren’t solved. Society adapted itself around them at considerable cost.

We are currently in such a period of disequilibrium. The old racial orthodoxy that prevailed from the 1990s until about 2012 is being replaced by a new one. Previously, racially targeted programs such as affirmative action were understood as temporary expedients to help America reach its ultimate destination, a colorblind future in which individuals are judged on their merits. Now, there is no longer any expectation that progress toward color blindness will be made in the future; that any progress has been